Declines in eGFR Good Predictor of CKD Progression

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In chronic kidney disease (CKD), decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is a predictor of progression to end–stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality.

Until now doubling of serum creatinine was used to define progression of CKD; however, in this meta–analysis, smaller decreases in eGFR “strongly” and “consistently” identified a greater proportion of people at risk for ESRD and mortality.

Optimal level of eGFR decline is approximately 30% over 2 years. At this level, you have the best information about who is going to progress to end–stage renal disease. But the doubling of serum creatinine turned out to be a 57% decreasein eGFR, which is a very strict and a very rare end point.

The study results were presented here at the European Renal Association–European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA–EDTA) 51st Congress, and were published online simultaneously in JAMA.